The Global Forecast using new data from to Jorgen Randers. Professor. Center for Climate Strategy. BI Norwegian Business School. Glimpse. has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to .

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Professor Jorgen Randers: 2052: A global forecast for the next forty years

I plan to use this as a basic text for an advanced high school social science course called “Global Futures”. Another is what the cumulative impacts of slum urbanism will be by It will be a “new Dark Age of hard times for the many and inordinate privilege and wealth for the joryen.

And in that world, electrical energy will stand rxnders, not just for replacing fuel energy in all sectors of the United States and the world, but also for doing it much more quickly than expected. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as rannders of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens.

Particularly in Europe, the financial crisis has led to radical cuts in incentives and targets for renewables.

This book fills a valuable niche in the raft of books on climate change and dynamic systems in that it tries to offer a predictive account, rather than one that includes comforting ideas of what our “collective humanity,” can “choose.

Jorgen offers some advice for those who can afford to take it: These cookies and any others in use are detailed in our site privacy and cookie policies and are integral to our web site.

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Solar energy and many other renewables are, after all, just another high-tech transformation—a process we have seen many times, and one we clearly understand. The methodology is using a model giving a conrete best guess instead of the usual scenario thinking.

I must confess that I’ve read this book in a rather superficial way. This book represents that coming-to-terms, moving beyond the cloying and obnoxious need most authors of such books have to craft a narrative that compels readers to vague, likely short-lived, and ultimately ineffective action. How the west will cope in a future no-growth era is an open question, given that economies need growth according to politics and mainstream economists. They are not all doom and gloom, but often give suggestions of potential positive trends which may be taken up, and act to bolster the trend to sustainability which Randers says will happen eventually, just later than would be desirable to protect our planetary support system.

Randers comes across as a very competent computer modeller and his forecasts have jlrgen air of reliability.

Unlike the original book The Limits of Growth from – scenario forecasting – this attempts at trend forecasting using a wealth of data that wasn’t available when the original book was written. This alone surely throws a spanner in his model. Being a firm believer in Peak Oil, I cannot agree with his rather quick dismissal of oil scarcity due to his faith in unconventional oil as substitute, without any consideration of vastly lower and decreasing net energy from such sources.

The process will be well under way by Most biologically-productive land will be used for human purposes. But he says that future generations randfrs be happy enough with this, as we so often see now with the young, entranced with their computer ganes and reluctant to venture outside.

The availability of feed, too, will determine supplies of land-based protein such as beef, jodgen, and pork. Energy demand is expected to rise, but not indefinitely.


Each short story provides predictions about what our future environment and economy will resemble. The state will become more involved. Hardcoverpages.

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years by Jørgen Randers

Jul 10, Beginner’s Luck rated it it was amazing. A new division of labor will develop within the megacity. Runaway eanders warming, too, is likely. Useful though in demonstrating that such sentiment forms a core part of the corporate sustainability movement: Required reading for Futurists and anyone interested in Future Studies.

2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Randers references UN recommendations [2] and gives 20 pieces of advice concerning individual behavior. X-ray imaging emerged in Randers’ mastery of many fields uorgen impressive, and he presents his ‘best guess’ future with clarity and force.

Choice- In commemoration rajders the 40th anniversary of Limits to Growth CH, Nov’73Randers climate strategy, BI Norwegian Business School forecasts changes in population, consumption, energy use, emissions, quality of life, and climate over the next 40 years. Just a moment while we sign you in to your Goodreads account. That’s right, but I wouldn’t pay the price of living in a dictatorship in order to solve this problem.

I believe that in forty years the balance of power will move further north in Europe. We may also use external analysis systems which may set additional cookies to perform their analysis. He did not seem to be grandstanding in the least and sought other expert opinions as well. The question now is whether consumption growth can continue while we reduce the human ecological footprint.